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As brackish turbid waters exit San Francisco Bay, one of the largest estuaries in the U.S. West Coast, they form the San Francisco Bay Plume (SFBP), which spreads offshore and influences the Gulf of the Farallones (GoF), an ecologically significant region in the California Current System that is also home to three National Marine Sanctuaries. This paper provides the first observationally based investigation of the spatio-temporal variability of the SFBP, using a plume tracking algorithm applied to more than two decades (2002-2023) of ocean color data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard satellites Aqua and Terra. The turbid SFBP spreads radially, extending 10-20 km offshore around 50% of the time, and during extreme discharge events (<1% of the time), the plume can reach nearly 60 km offshore to the shelf break. The greatest variability in frequency of plume occurrence was observed 10-20 km offshore and it was largely explained by the seasonal cycle (80% of total variance), linked primarily to seasonal changes in river discharge. Largest plume areas (determined by summing up all pixel areas weighted by their respective fraction of plume occurrence) were observed during winter and smallest during summer, occupying on average 24% and 1.5% of GoF area, respectively. Beyond 20-30 km offshore, variability in frequency of plume occurrence was dominated by the intraseasonal band (50-80% of total variance), attributed to plume response to synoptic wind-forcing and/or filaments and eddies, while the interannual band played a secondary role in the plume variability (<20% of total variance). Finally, a multivariable linear regression model of the turbid SFBP area was created to explore the potential predictability of the plume’s influence in the GoF. The model included the annual and semi-annual cycles and discharge anomalies (deseasoned and detrended), and despite its simplicity, it explained over 78% of total variance of the turbid SFBP area. Therefore, it could be a useful tool for scientists and stakeholders to better understand how management actions on freshwater supply can have consequences offshore beyond the Golden Gate and help guide future management decisions in this ecologically important region. 

To keep global surface warming below 1.5°C by 2100, the portfolio of cost-effective CDR technologies must expand. To evaluate the potential of macroalgae CDR, we developed a kelp aquaculture bio-techno-economic model in which large quantities of kelp would be farmed at an offshore site, transported to a deep water “sink site”, and then deposited below the sequestration horizon (1,000 m). We estimated the costs and associated emissions of nursery production, permitting, farm construction, ocean cultivation, biomass transport, and Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) for a 1,000 acre (405 ha) “baseline” project located in the Gulf of Maine, USA. The baseline kelp CDR model applies current systems of kelp cultivation to deep water (100 m) exposed sites using best available modeling methods. We calculated the levelized unit costs of CO 2 eq sequestration (LCOC; $ tCO 2 eq -1 ). Under baseline assumptions, LCOC was $17,048 tCO 2 eq -1 . Despite annually sequestering 628 tCO 2 eq within kelp biomass at the sink site, the project was only able to net 244 C credits (tCO 2 eq) each year, a true sequestration “additionality” rate (AR) of 39% (i.e., the ratio of net C credits produced to gross C sequestered within kelp biomass). As a result of optimizing 18 key parameters for which we identified a range within the literature, LCOC fell to $1,257 tCO 2 eq -1 and AR increased to 91%, demonstrating that substantial cost reductions could be achieved through process improvement and decarbonization of production supply chains. Kelp CDR may be limited by high production costs and energy intensive operations, as well as MRV uncertainty. To resolve these challenges, R&D must (1) de-risk farm designs that maximize lease space, (2) automate the seeding and harvest processes, (3) leverage selective breeding to increase yields, (4) assess the cost-benefit of gametophyte nursery culture as both a platform for selective breeding and driver of operating cost reductions, (5) decarbonize equipment supply chains, energy usage, and ocean cultivation by sourcing electricity from renewables and employing low GHG impact materials with long lifespans, and (6) develop low-cost and accurate MRV techniques for ocean-based CDR. 

The Connecticut River plume interacts with the strong tidal currents of the ambient receiving waters in eastern Long Island Sound. The plume formed during ambient flood tides is studied as an example of tidal river plumes entering into energetic ambient tidal environments in estuaries or continental shelves. Conservative passive freshwater tracers within a high-resolution nested hydrodynamic model are applied to determine how source waters from different parts of the tidal cycle contribute to plume composition and interact with bounding plume fronts. The connection to source waters can be cut off only under low-discharge conditions, when tides reverse surface flow through the mouth after max ambient flood. Upstream plume extent is limited because ambient tidal currents arrest the opposing plume propagation, as the tidal internal Froude number exceeds one. The downstream extent of the tidal plume always is within 20 km from the mouth, which is less than twice the ambient tidal excursion. Freshwaters in the river during the preceding ambient ebb are the oldest found in the new flood plume. Connectivity with source waters and plume fronts exhibits a strong upstream-to-downstream asymmetry. The arrested upstream front has high connectivity, as all freshwaters exiting the mouth immediately interact with this boundary. The downstream plume front has the lowest overall connectivity, as interaction is limited to the oldest waters since younger interior waters do not overtake this front. The offshore front and inshore boundary exhibit a downstream progression from younger to older waters and decreasing overall connectivity with source waters. Plume-averaged freshwater tracer concentrations and variances both exhibit an initial growth period followed by a longer decay period for the remainder of the tidal period. The plume-averaged tracer variance is increased by mouth inputs, decreased by entrainment, and destroyed by internal mixing. Peak entrainment velocities for younger waters are higher than values for older waters, indicating stronger entrainment closer to the mouth. Entrainment and mixing time scales (1–4 h at max ambient flood) are both shorter than half a tidal period, indicating entrainment and mixing are vigorous enough to rapidly diminish tracer variance within the plume. 

Abstract The mixing of river plumes into the coastal ocean influences the fate of river-borne tracers over the inner-shelf, though the relative importance of mixing mechanisms under different environmental conditions is not fully understood. In particular, the contribution to plume mixing from bottom generated shear stresses, referred to as tidal mixing, is rarely considered important relative to frontal and stratified shear (interfacial) mixing in surface advected plumes. The effect of different mixing mechanisms is investigated numerically on an idealized, tidally pulsed river plume with varying river discharge and tidal amplitudes. Frontal, interfacial, and tidal mixing are quantified via a mixing energy budget to compare the relative importance of each to the overall buoyancy flux over one tide. Results indicate that tidal mixing can dominate the energy budget when the tidal mixing power exceeds that of the input buoyancy flux. This occurs when the non-dimensional number, Ri E (the estuarine Richardson number divided by the mouth Rossby number), is generally less than 1. Tidal mixing accounts for between 60% and 90% of the net mixing when Ri E < 1, with the largest contributions during large tides and low discharge. Interfacial mixing varies from 10% to 90% of total mixing and dominates the budget for high discharge events with relatively weaker tides ( Ri E > 1). Frontal mixing is always less than 10% of total mixing and never dominates the budget. This work is the first to show tidal mixing as an important mixing mechanism in surface advected river plumes.